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Produktbild: Fuel Hedging And Risk Management

Fuel Hedging And Risk Management Strategies For Airlines, Shippers And Other Consumers

Aus der Reihe Wiley Finance Series

111,99 €

inkl. MwSt, Versandkostenfrei

Beschreibung

Details

Einband

Gebundene Ausgabe

Erscheinungsdatum

25.04.2016

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons Inc

Seitenzahl

312

Maße (L/B/H)

25,1/17,2/2,7 cm

Gewicht

682 g

Auflage

1. Auflage

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-02672-3

Beschreibung

Details

Einband

Gebundene Ausgabe

Erscheinungsdatum

25.04.2016

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons Inc

Seitenzahl

312

Maße (L/B/H)

25,1/17,2/2,7 cm

Gewicht

682 g

Auflage

1. Auflage

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-02672-3

Herstelleradresse

Produktsicherheitsverantwortliche/r
Europaallee 1
36244 Bad Hersfeld
DE

Email: gpsr@libri.de

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  • Produktbild: Fuel Hedging And Risk Management
  • Preface xiii

    Acknowledgments xix

    About the Authors xxi

    CHAPTER 1 Energy Commodities and Price Formation 1

    Energy as a Strategic Resource 1

    Energy as a Tradable Commodity 3

    Energy Commodities 5

    Crude Oil 5

    Oil Products 8

    Natural Gas 11

    Coal 11

    Price Drivers in Energy Markets 12

    Geopolitical Risks 12

    The Geopolitical Chessboard - The Petrodollar System and Rising China 12

    Long-Term Supply and Demand 15

    Short-Term Supply and Demand: Supply Chain and Infrastructure 17

    Financialization of Commodities 19

    Market-Specific Price Drivers 19

    Summary 20

    CHAPTER 2 Major Energy Consumers and the Rationale for Fuel Hedging 23

    Energy Market Participants 23

    Risks Faced by Fuel Consumers - The Case of the Airline Industry 27

    Airline Industry - Metrics and Operational Risks 27

    Airline Industry - Financial Risks 30

    Risks Faced by Other Major Fuel Consumers 35

    Shipping Companies 35

    Land Transportation 37

    Oil Refining, Petrochemicals, and Power Generation 37

    Industrial Users of Energy Commodities 38

    The Case for Hedging 39

    The Effect of Hedging on Airline Stock Price Volatility 39

    Commodity Derivative Markets 41

    A Brief History of Commodity Markets 42

    Commodity Spot Markets and the Need for Standardization 43

    Forward Contracts 44

    Futures Contracts 45

    Option Contracts 50

    Summary 53

    Appendix A 54

    CHAPTER 3 Developing Fuel Hedging Strategies 55

    The Rationale for Commodity Hedging 55

    Developing a Fuel Hedging Program 57

    Risk Identification and Assessment 57

    Types of Risk 58

    Risk Identification 59

    Forecasting Prices and Conducting Simulations 59

    Articulating the Firm's Risk Appetite 60

    Setting Objectives for Fuel Hedging and the Scope of Hedging 60

    Identifying Risk Managers within the Organization 61

    Determining the Scope of the Hedge Program 61

    Implementation of Hedging 62

    Selecting the Fuel Cost Management Method 62

    Identifying the Underlying to Hedge with and Basis Risk 63

    Quantity and Tenor of Hedging 66

    Selection of Instruments for Hedging 67

    Market Risk 68

    Management of the Unwanted Risks of a Portfolio 68

    Credit Risk 68

    Liquidity Risk 69

    Operational Risk 69

    Legal and Reputational Risk 70

    Monitoring and Calibration of the Hedging Program 70

    Template for a Risk Management Policy 71

    The Airline Industry - Trends in Fuel Risk Management 71

    Magnitude of Fuel Price Risk 71

    Underlyings and Hedging Instruments 73

    Quantity and Tenor of Hedging 74

    Recent Developments 75

    Summary 75

    CHAPTER 4 Shipping and Airlines - Basics of Fuel Hedging 77

    Spot-Forward Relationships 77

    Theories on the Shape of Forward Curves 78

    Spot-Forward Relationships for Investment Assets 79

    Spot-Forward Relationships for Commodities 80

    Spot and Futures Volatility 81

    Options 82

    Call and Put Options 83

    Put-Call Parity 84

    Option-Based Hedging for a Shipping Company 85

    Implied Volatility and the Black-Scholes Model 86

    The Black-Scholes-Merton Model 88

    Black's Model for Pricing Options on Futures Contracts 89

    The Greeks 89

    Delta 90

    Gamma 92

    Theta 92

    Vega 94

    Rho 94

    Higher-Order Greeks 95

    Black's Model Option Greeks 95

    Asian Swaps and Options 96

    Asian Swap-Based Hedging for a Shipping Company 97

    Option Structures 97

    Call Spreads and Put Spreads 97

    Collars, Three-Ways, and Calendar Spread Options 99

    Straddles, Strangles, and Butterflies 100

    Capped Forwards 102

    Capped Swap Usage for a Shipping Company 103

    Derivatives Pricing 104

    Stochastic Processes for Asset Prices - An Introduction 104

    Brownian Motion and Wiener Processes 104

    Itô's Lemma 106

    Option Pricing Using the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula 107

    Asian Option Pricing 109

    Summary 112

    CHAPTER 5 Advanced Hedging and Forward Curve Dynamics 113

    Swap and Vanilla Option-Based Structures 113

    Zero-Cost Structures and the Usage of Options 114

    Leveraged Swaps 114

    Capped Swaps 116

    Floored Swaps 117

    The Volatility Surface 118

    Multi-option Structures 119

    Zero-Cost Collar 120

    Three-Ways 120

    Risk Reversals and their Hedging 121

    Early-Expiry Options and Instantaneous Volatility Term Structures 122

    The Samuelson Effect and the Storage Theory 122

    Implied Volatility of Energy Futures Contracts 123

    Early-Expiry Profile Construction 124

    Commodity Swaptions and Extendible Swaps 127

    Usage of Commodity Swaptions and the Reasons for their Popularity 127

    Swaption vs. a Basket of Options 128

    Understanding Commodity Futures Term Structures 133

    The Normal Backwardation or Keynesian Theory 133

    The Theory of Storage 134

    Term-Structure Models 135

    Schwartz's One-Factor Model 135

    Schwartz's Two-Factor Model 136

    Gabillon's Model 137

    Gabillon's Stochastic Equation for Futures 138

    Early-Expiry Profile Using Gabillon's Model 139

    Importance of Early-Expiry Profile for Exotic Products 139

    Summary 140

    CHAPTER 6 Exotic Hedging and Volatility Dynamics 141

    Extendible Option Structures 142

    Extendible Collar 142

    Extendible Three-Ways 143

    Cancellable - Extendible Parity 144

    Pricing Extendible Option Structures 146

    Volatility Models 150

    Stochastic Volatility Models 150

    Barrier Option-Based Structures 152

    Knock-Out Options and Knock-In Options 152

    Relationship between KI and KO Options 154

    Knock-Out Swaps 154

    Airbag Structure 154

    KIKOs and Combinations of KI and KO Options 155

    Accumulator Structures 156

    European or Asian-Style Barrier Options 157

    Barrier Payouts and Non-linearity - Digital Options and Replication 157

    The Reflection Principle 160

    Barrier Options Under the Black-Scholes Framework 161

    Put-Call Symmetry 163

    MTM Analysis of Barrier Options Under the Black-Scholes Framework 163

    Pricing and Risk Management of Barriers with Real-World Constraints 165

    Barrier Options on a Nearby Futures Contract 167

    Local Volatility Models 168

    Bermudan Extendible Structures 170

    Valuation of Bermudan Extendibles 174

    Longstaff-Schwartz Method and Exercise Boundaries 174

    Extendible vs. Auto-callable Transactions 177

    Bermudan Extendibles and the Forward Skew 177

    The Inverse Leverage Effect in Commodities Markets 179

    Target Redemption Structures 180

    Target Redemptions and the 2008 Debacle 182

    Defining Leverage 183

    Target Redemption Pricing and Risk Management 184

    The Mean-Reversion Trap 185

    Target Redemption and Trading Risks 186

    Sticky Strike and Sticky Delta 187

    Sticky Strike Approach 187

    Sticky Delta or Sticky Moneyness 188

    Gamma/Theta Ratio 188

    Summary 190

    CHAPTER 7 Fuel Hedging and Counterparty Risk 191

    The Importance of Valuation and Transaction Monitoring 191

    Market Risk Management 192

    Fuel Hedgers: Lottery Tickets and Spring Cleaning 193

    Value at Risk 194

    Liquidity Risk 195

    Counterparty Risk 195

    Credit Risk and Counterparty Risk 196

    Expected Exposure 198

    Potential Future Exposure 198

    Measurement of Counterparty Risk for a Portfolio of Trades 198

    Peak PFE 198

    Common PFE Misconceptions and Pitfalls 200

    Credit Exposure Optimization Techniques 202

    Bilateral Netting Agreements 202

    Credit Support Annexes 203

    CSA Negotiations - Key Considerations 203

    Funding Valuation Adjustment 206

    Fuel Hedgers and FVA 207

    The FVA Debate 209

    The Price of Counterparty Credit Risk 209

    Credit Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps 210

    Credit Valuation Adjustment 212

    Common CVA Mis-steps 213

    Gap Options and Collateralization Agreements 213

    Debt Valuation Adjustment 214

    Fuel Hedgers and Debt Valuation Adjustments 214

    The Case for Bilateral CVA 215

    Wrong-Way Risk 216

    Counterparty Credit Risk Hedging 216

    Contingent CDS 216

    Capped Exposure Derivatives 217

    Summary 217

    CHAPTER 8 Conducting Scenario Analysis 219

    Scenario Analysis for Vanilla Products 220

    Scenario Analysis for Path-Dependent Products 224

    MTM-Based Scenario Analysis and Potential Future Exposures 229

    Beyond Payoffs and MTMs - Collateralization and Funding Requirement Analysis 230

    Hedge Effectiveness 231

    Summary 233

    CHAPTER 9 Financing and Risk Management: Bundled Solutions 235

    Structured Aviation Finance Overview 235

    Airline Financing via Debt and Aircraft Leases 238

    Term Loans 239

    Export Credit Agency Debt 240

    Leases 240

    Rationale for Combining Hedging and Financing 243

    Reduction of Default Risk through Hedging 244

    Oil-Linked Financing Structures 245

    Flexible Oil-Insulated Lease 246

    Cancellable Hedged Loans as Interest Cheapeners 250

    Summary 252

    CHAPTER 10 Applied Fuel Hedging - Case Studies 253

    Case Study 1: YM Cargo Inc. 253

    Business Risks 253

    Operational Mitigants 254

    Risk Appetite 255

    Hedge Program Objectives and Scope 255

    Implementation of Hedging 256

    Portfolio Monitoring 260

    Case Study 2: Worldwide Airlines 260

    Evolution of WWA's Hedging Strategy 262

    Hedging Transactions Executed by WWA 264

    Hedge Portfolio Analysis 267

    Credit Lines and Collateralization Issues 269

    Restructuring WWA's Portfolio 271

    Counterparty Risk and Funding Considerations for BMC 272

    Summary 276

    Bibliography 277

    Index 281