Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity provides the first comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.Risks and uncertainties play a role in virtually all of our decisions. Quantitative models have so far been either too unrealistic or too complex. This graduate textbook presents modern models that are both realistic and tractable. All mathematical tools are related to real-life processes, ensuring accessibility to a wide audience.
Peter P. Wakker is Professor at the Econometric Institute, Erasmus University. His work concerns human decisions under risk and uncertainty from an economic, mathematical and psychological perspective.