The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.
Portrait

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent two decades as a risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical, philosophical, and mathematical problems with chance, luck, and probability. He now spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. In addition to his life as a trader, he spent several years as an academic researcher as Distinguished Professor at New York University's School of Engineering and Dean's Professor at University of Massachusetts Amherst.

He is the author of the Incerto (Latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes and Fooled by Randomness) plus a freely available technical version, Silent Risk. Taleb has also published more than 50 academic and scholarly papers as a backup, technical footnotes to the Incerto in topics ranging from statistical physics to decision science. His books have been translated into thirty-seven languages.

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Beschreibung

Produktdetails


Format ePUB i
Kopierschutz kopiergeschützt i
Seitenzahl 480, (Printausgabe)
Erscheinungsdatum 03.04.2008
Sprache Englisch
EAN 9780141906201
Verlag Penguin Books Ltd
Verkaufsrang 40.840
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9,49
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