Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

List of Figures
Foreword
Preface
About the Authors
Introduction to the Fourth Edition
Introduction
Part I: How Do I Get Started?
Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part II: Where Is The Information I Need?
Chapter 7: How Do Models and Artificial Intelligence Help My Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part III: What Is My Argument?
Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 14: How Do I Present to Policymakers?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong-Or on the Doorstep of an Unmitigated Success?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 19: Am I Presenting My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Appendix A: Definitions of Biases and Traps
Appendix B: Definitions of Intuitive Traps
Part V: Case Studies
Case Study I: Uncharted Territory in the Arctic
Case Study II: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard!
Case Study III: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers?
Case Study IV: The Case of Iraq's Aluminum Tubes
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
Recommended Readings
US Government Publications
Index